Implements various methods for eliciting a probability distribution for a single parameter from an expert or a group of experts. The expert provides a small number of probability judgements, corresponding to points on his or her cumulative distribution function. A range of parametric distributions can then be fitted and displayed, with feedback provided in the form of fitted probabilities and percentiles. A graphical interface for the roulette elicitation method is also provided. For multiple experts, a weighted linear pool can be calculated. Also includes functions for eliciting beliefs about population distributions.
Change in fitdist to starting values in optimisation: will now check for exact fits if only two probabilities elicited
New functions added for eliciting beliefs about uncertain population distributions: cdffeedback, cdfplot, fitprecision, pdfplots
Roulette elicitation method now implemented using shiny
New functions fitDirchlet and feedbackDirichlet for eliciting Dirichlet distributions
New functions copulaSample and elicitConcProb for eliciting dependent distributions using multivariate normal copulas
New function compareIntervals for comparing fitted intervals for individual distributions from multiple experts
Change to expert.names from numbers to letters in fitdist
Vignettes added: overview of SHELF, eliciting a Dirichlet distribution, eliciting a bivariate distribution with a bivariate normal copula
Bug fixed: interactive plots now work for plotting individual distributions for multiple experts
Bug fixed: plotting best fitting individual distributions for multiple experts
Accept non-decreasing probabilities in elicited judgements, rather than only strictly increasing probabilities
Can specify own axes labels in the plotfit command with arguments xlab and ylab
Update to Multivariate-normal-copula.Rmd vignette, to match update to GGally
Bug fixed: can fit (and plot) distributions bounded below when lower limit is negative
Bug fixed: roulette method shiny interface works with non-integer bin boundaries
Bug fixed: ensure solid line used for linear pool when plotting. Option in plotfit added to plot all individual densities with same colour, to simplify legend.
New function: linearPoolDensity, for extracting density values from the linear pool.
Bug fixed: can now accept more than 26 experts.
Bug fixed: qlinearpool/plinearpool now works with log t distributions.
New function: elicitHeterogen, for eliciting prior for variance of random effects in meta-analysis