Local Latent Flow Forecasting with Empirical Calibration

Fits conditional flow-matching models to univariate time series. Combines a selectable exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA), or structural time-series baseline with direct multi-step residual paths and a random-feature extreme learning machine (ELM) velocity field. Spectral dispersion calibration uses a chronological calibration block, with a separate test block for forecast scoring. Provides simulated forecast paths and smooth marginal distributions. Methodological background is given by Lipman et al. (2023) , Huang et al. (2006) , Hyndman and Khandakar (2008) , and Haslett and Raftery (1989) .