Flexible Bayesian Model Selection and Model Averaging

Implements the Mode Jumping Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm described in and its Genetically Modified counterpart described in as well as the sub-sampling versions described in for flexible Bayesian model selection and model averaging.

Bayesian Network Structure Learning, Parameter Learning and Inference

Bayesian network structure learning, parameter learning and inference. This package implements constraint-based (PC, GS, IAMB, Inter-IAMB, Fast-IAMB, MMPC, Hiton-PC, HPC), pairwise (ARACNE and Chow-Liu), score-based (Hill-Climbing and Tabu Search) and hybrid (MMHC, RSMAX2, H2PC) structure learning algorithms for discrete, Gaussian and conditional Gaussian networks, along with many score functions and conditional independence tests. The Naive Bayes and the Tree-Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN) classifiers are also implemented. Some utility functions (model comparison and manipulation, random data generation, arc orientation testing, simple and advanced plots) are included, as well as support for parameter estimation (maximum likelihood and Bayesian) and inference, conditional probability queries, cross-validation, bootstrap and model averaging. Development snapshots with the latest bugfixes are available from < https://www.bnlearn.com/>.

Tools for Bayesian Analyses

Provides tools for conducting Bayesian analyses and Bayesian model averaging (Kass and Raftery, 1995, , Hoeting et al., 1999, ). The package contains functions for creating a wide range of prior distribution objects, mixing posterior samples from 'JAGS' and 'Stan' models, plotting posterior distributions, and etc... The tools for working with prior distribution span from visualization, generating 'JAGS' and 'bridgesampling' syntax to basic functions such as rng, quantile, and distribution functions.

Model Selection and Multimodel Inference Based on (Q)AIC(c)

Functions to implement model selection and multimodel inference based on Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and the second-order AIC (AICc), as well as their quasi-likelihood counterparts (QAIC, QAICc) from various model object classes. The package implements classic model averaging for a given parameter of interest or predicted values, as well as a shrinkage version of model averaging parameter estimates or effect sizes. The package includes diagnostics and goodness-of-fit statistics for certain model types including those of 'unmarkedFit' classes estimating demographic parameters after accounting for imperfect detection probabilities. Some functions also allow the creation of model selection tables for Bayesian models of the 'bugs', 'rjags', and 'jagsUI' classes. Functions also implement model selection using BIC. Objects following model selection and multimodel inference can be formatted to LaTeX using 'xtable' methods included in the package.

Harmonic Mean p-Values and Model Averaging by Mean Maximum Likelihood

The harmonic mean p-value (HMP) test combines p-values and corrects for multiple testing while controlling the strong-sense family-wise error rate. It is more powerful than common alternatives including Bonferroni and Simes procedures when combining large proportions of all the p-values, at the cost of slightly lower power when combining small proportions of all the p-values. It is more stringent than controlling the false discovery rate, and possesses theoretical robustness to positive correlations between tests and unequal weights. It is a multi-level test in the sense that a superset of one or more significant tests is certain to be significant and conversely when the superset is non-significant, the constituent tests are certain to be non-significant. It is based on MAMML (model averaging by mean maximum likelihood), a frequentist analogue to Bayesian model averaging, and is theoretically grounded in generalized central limit theorem. For detailed examples type vignette("harmonicmeanp") after installation. Version 3.0 addresses errors in versions 1.0 and 2.0 that led function p.hmp to control the familywise error rate only in the weak sense, rather than the strong sense as intended.

Bayesian Averaging for Dynamic Panels

Implements Bayesian model averaging for dynamic panels with weakly exogenous regressors as described in the paper by Moral-Benito (2013, ). The package provides functions to estimate dynamic panel data models and analyze the results of the estimation.

Robust Bayesian T-Test

An implementation of Bayesian model-averaged t-tests that allows users to draw inferences about the presence versus absence of an effect, variance heterogeneity, and potential outliers. The 'RoBTT' package estimates ensembles of models created by combining competing hypotheses and applies Bayesian model averaging using posterior model probabilities. Users can obtain model-averaged posterior distributions and inclusion Bayes factors, accounting for uncertainty in the data-generating process (Maier et al., 2024, ). The package also provides a truncated likelihood version of the model-averaged t-test, enabling users to exclude potential outliers without introducing bias (Godmann et al., 2024, ). Users can specify a wide range of informative priors for all parameters of interest. The package offers convenient functions for summary, visualization, and fit diagnostics.

The Bayesian Causal Effect Estimation Algorithm

A Bayesian model averaging approach to causal effect estimation based on the BCEE algorithm. Currently supports binary or continuous exposures and outcomes. For more details, see Talbot et al. (2015) Talbot and Beaudoin (2022) .

Bayesian Spatial Panel Data Models with Convex Combinations of Weight Matrices

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation of spatial panel data models including Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), Spatial Error Model (SEM), Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM), and Spatial Lag of X (SLX) specifications with fixed effects. Supports convex combinations of multiple spatial weight matrices and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) over subsets of weight matrices. Implements the convex combination spatial weight matrix methodology of Debarsy and LeSage (2021) and the Bayesian spatial panel data models of LeSage and Pace (2009, ISBN:9781420064247).

Bayesian Mortality Modelling with 'Stan'

Implementation of popular mortality models using the 'rstan' package, which provides the R interface to the 'Stan' C++ library for Bayesian estimation. The package supports well-known models proposed in the actuarial and demographic literature including the Lee-Carter (1992) and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd (2006) models. By a simple call, the user inputs deaths and exposures and the package outputs the MCMC simulations for each parameter, the log likelihoods and predictions. Moreover, the package includes tools for model selection and Bayesian model averaging by leave future-out validation.